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📊 Atmospheric Pressure
-- inHg →
28.529.530.030.531.0
Stable conditions expected
6-hour trend
📡 GOES-16 Satellite — Southern Plains
GOES-16
GOES-16 ABI — Southern Plains Sector — Latest image from NOAA/NESDIS. Updated every 5–10 minutes.
ℹ Tip: During the pre-convective period, visible satellite (daytime) shows cumulus development 30–60 min before storms appear on radar. Water vapor shows jet stream position and dry intrusions. IR shows cloud-top temperatures: colder tops = taller/stronger updrafts.
↗ Open full NESDIS GOES viewer
🌪 SPC Convective Outlook — Day 1–3
SPC Day 1 Categorical
Day 1 Categorical Outlook — TSTM / MRGL / SLGT / ENH / MDT / HIGH
SPC Day 1 Tornado
Day 1 Tornado Probability (%)
SPC Day 1 Hail
Day 1 Hail Probability (%)
SPC Day 1 Wind
Day 1 Damaging Wind Probability (%)
SPC Day 2
Day 2 Categorical Outlook
SPC Day 3
Day 3 Categorical Outlook
ℹ Outlooks updated: Day 1 at 0600, 1300, 1630, 2000, 0100 UTC. Day 2 at 0600, 1730 UTC. Day 3 at 0730 UTC. SLGT = 15% or greater tornado / 30% severe wind or hail probability. ENH and above = significant severe weather potential. PDS = Particularly Dangerous Situation.
↗ Open full SPC Outlook page
⛈ Convective Parameters — SPC Mesoanalysis
SBCAPE
Surface-Based CAPE (J/kg) — <500 weak, 500–2000 moderate, >2000 significant updraft potential. Central Texas often 3000–5000 in spring.
MLCAPE
Mixed-Layer CAPE (J/kg) — More representative than SBCAPE when surface layer is modified. Use for overall convective potential.
EL Temp / MUCIN (Cap)
EL Temp / MUCAPE / MUCIN — MUCIN is the convective cap. 50–150 J/kg = CAPE building under cap. >200 J/kg = cap unlikely to break. When cap breaks, explosive development possible.
0-6km Shear
0–6 km Bulk Shear (kt) — >35 kt = organized severe storms. >50 kt = supercell potential. >60 kt = violent tornado environment.
Effective SRH
Effective SR Helicity (m²/s²) — >150 = tornado possible, >300 = significant tornado, >500 = violent tornado potential. Effective-layer SRH is the best measure for tornado forecasting.
STP
Significant Tornado Parameter (effective layer) — Composite index. STP > 1 = significant (EF2+) tornado possible. STP > 4 = violent tornado environment.
SCP
Supercell Composite Parameter — SCP > 1 = supercell development favored. Combined measure of instability, lift, shear, and helicity.
ℹ SPC Mesoanalysis images updated hourly. Images are analyses of current atmospheric data, not forecasts. Combine with AFD SHORT TERM discussion and hourly forecast for full picture. ↗ Full Mesoanalysis page
🌍 Synoptic Pattern Overview — WPC Analysis
WPC Surface Analysis
WPC Surface Analysis — Front positions, low/high pressure centers, dryline location. Updated every 3 hours.
500mb Analysis
500mb Height Analysis — Ridges and troughs. Troughs promote lift; ridges suppress convection. Jet stream position critical for Central Texas spring severe weather.
850mb LLJ
850mb Temperature & Low-Level Jet — Warm air advection and the nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ) drive overnight storm development over Central Texas.
300mb Jet Stream
300mb Jet Stream — Right entrance region (NE of jet maximum) provides strong upper-level divergence that enhances supercell development.
ℹ WPC analyses updated every 3 hours. For severe weather days, look for: (1) dryline approaching from W/SW, (2) trough axis over TX/OK, (3) jet max overhead or just NW, (4) strong warm air advection on 850mb. All four = classic Central Texas supercell setup.
↗ WPC Homepage
📅 10-Day Forecast
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Williamson County, TX • K5NCO PWS  📍 Set Location
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📊 Atmospheric Pressure
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📻 Comms
WilCo ARES Primary147.080+ PL100
WilCo ARES Simplex147.430
NWS EWX Spotter 1-800-409-2054
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📻 NOAA WR — Backup Info Path ▼
NOAA Weather Radio — Central Texas
KHB-49 162.400 MHz Austin/Round Rock (KEWX)
KZZ-48 162.550 MHz Killeen/Temple/Ft Cavazos (KGRK)
WXK-72 162.425 MHz San Marcos/Blanco
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